He explained that, generally, if China is the only supplier for a product, “more (or all) of the tariff is passed on to US consumers, and the pain is felt by the latter." But in the event that China is merely one of the many countries that sell a product, “prices do not change much and Chinese suppliers lose market share. Then the pain is felt mostly by Chinese producers."
“So, the answer very much varies by product, which is why both sides have been selecting the targets so carefully," Baptist wrote.
Trump has no choice but to land a trade deal with China (May 31, 2019)
Is Trump really willing to cause a stock-market correction, or worse, to get a trade deal with China? A safe guess is no, since Trump considers the stock market a report card on his presidency. Trump might reason that stocks will recover once he announces some kind of deal, even if it doesn’t happen till next year. But China has a say in this too, and as the U.S. economy weakens and the U.S. stock market declines, China’s hand gets stronger.
Chinese President Xi Jinping isn’t running for reelection next year, or ever. He has to keep the Chinese economy humming, but not on a political deadline.
China reportedly halting US soy purchases (May 30, 2019)
U.S. soybean farmers have taken a hard hit from the trade tensions as the value of soybean exports to China fell 74% to $3.1 billion in 2018 from about $12.2 billion the previous year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The Trump administration last week announced a $16 billion trade aid program for American farmers impacted by retaliatory tariffs.
China Threatens Sweeping Blacklist of Firms After Huawei Ban (May 31, 2019)
Trump’s 180-degree turn on one of the largest U.S. trading partners is sending a ominous message to the international community that he can’t be trusted, Wall Street policy analysts said, adding that China, already skeptical of Trump’s reliability, is now less likely to sign a trade deal with him.
“We view this action as further deteriorating the U.S.-China trade fight. Chinese officials have stated their concern about the reliability of President Trump as a trading partner. These tariffs were announced the same day as significant advancement of the USMCA. If China does not believe a deal will stick, why negotiate?” said Ed Mills, public policy analyst at Raymond James, in a note.
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Analysts: China Isn’t Targeting Apple In Trade War (May 30, 2019)
The U.S. Commerce department blacklisted Huawei this month, a move that caused plenty of Apple investors to worry that China could do the same for Apple in retaliation. Mohan said if China targets Apple, it could be inflicting more harm on itself than America. Bank of America estimates more than 2 million Chinese workers are employed in the Apple supply chain, making it difficult target for the Chinese government.
Technology hardware: Apple (AAPL) encapsulates the trouble for this industry. The company generates 58% of sales abroad, has 42% of its plant, property and equipment overseas and uses roughly 750 component suppliers spread across 20 different countries, including relying heavily on low-cost labor (one million workers in one location in China. If Apple had to bring production to the U.S., the cost of making the iPhone could double and 60% of its sales would be at risk, write Morgan Stanley analysts. Though an extreme example, the analysts say it underscores how costly the reversal of existing geopolitical norms would be to the likes of U.S. IT hardware companies.
But these companies keep hitting the same stumbling block: the inability to share health information across medical systems. Millions of patients are learning that they can’t share clinical data from their electronic medical records between doctors, especially among those working at different hospitals. They face a similar challenge getting billing information.
It’s challenging to build systems using things like artificial intelligence, for instance, if companies can’t access the large-scale data they need to build their computer models.